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My ETH thoughts.

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  • My ETH thoughts.

    Ethereum, like many alts, looks to have broken out of the 123 Bottom formation. As it exited the resistance at the 2 line I entered with some of my position - and as I was proven correct, I added to my position.

    I think we could see ETH heading back up to 0.073 levels where previous support/resistance was - possibly even higher. I've set some 'popcorn sell' orders at 0.096 just incase it really takes off!

    Click image for larger version

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    high def: https://www.coinigy.com/s/i/5acf11c22a315/


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  • #2
    Very good - I agree with documenting the phases when studying Rule #2, to add on when you are correct. Adding on 'correctly' is always the challenge.

    And I'm very happy you are sharing the details of the trade, because then we can compare the actual trade against the ideal textbook strategy - and later we can compare against what really happened. It is a benefit to me to comment, because it clarifies my own thinking about Rule #2. I am not yet implementing that correctly myself. As we go through this next phase of the bull market, we will have opportunity to put the course material to the test.

    Learn about a trading plan
    calculate the potential for the plan
    practice the trading plan

    Then you can trade the plan with confidence and patience as the next opportunity unfolds. I'm still calculating the benefits of Rule #2 and the timing of when to add on correctly.

    For reference, The 'Simple Trading Plan' trading entry signal is simple and clear. You can see this trading signal from a mile away - it's not difficult, and I think anyone can identify these trading signals in the historical charts.

    The 'Simple Trading Plan' looks for
    • Down trend-line breach
    • 1-2-3 bottom formation breakout
    • 3 month EMA crossover
    When your trading methods step back to the 12 hour bars, and expands to include 18 months of data - you have the timeframe to get a perspective on the size of a trend. If there are forces in trading that cause patterns like the Elliot Waves, then, as we view the 12 hour bars... we can anticipate that upwaves in that time scale may take a couple weeks, followed by a week of retracement... where we may anticipate an internal 1-2-3 at historical support levels before the new bull trend resumes.

    So - Rule #2, to add on correctly, also must include a specific time frame. Here are some longer-term ideas for 'textbook times' to add on, take profits, and go short. It is easy to fill in historical charts with ideal trade moments after the fact, but they are useful for perspective and for calculating what if's

    Last year's ETH breakout in the 12 hour bars on coinigy.

    https://www.coinigy.com/s/i/5ad1e5375757d/

    shows that after a good move, we should see some uncertainty and sideways chop.

    After a good move where we are proven correct, it may take a week or two before the mess is cleaned up and another wave begins. The chart below has my imaginary best times to add on to the ETH trade last year, along with the ideal best time to close your position and go short.

    And add onto the short position.

    Again - each of the waves of price moves takes several days and sometimes weeks, followed by a correction, and on with another wave...

    Click image for larger version

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    Comment


    • introtocryptos
      introtocryptos commented
      Editing a comment
      Note that the 3 month EMA has not crossed over yet. ETH only shows 2 of the 3 required trading signals for The 'Simple Trading Plan'. By the chart above, our bot would not yet have taken a long position, and would not have closed the short positions it has.

    • davidvader
      davidvader commented
      Editing a comment
      Maybe the bot wouldn't have bought, but I certainly did. But will be vigilant for fake out.

    • introtocryptos
      introtocryptos commented
      Editing a comment
      I agree with the buy. While I didn't pick up any more eth, I've been holding since January 2015 so I'm at an insane profit and it doesn't matter.
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